Thoughts on variance

Posted by bellatrix

June 23, 2008

Before I continue my little WSOP trip report, I’m having a few existentialist thoughts on variance. No, I’m not having a losing streak, but several of my friends are. Yeah, variance can be brutal in this game, when all your opponents’ 2-5 outers seem to come in and you start doubting, whether to raise your AQs in the BB when there’s already 5 limpers in. But at what point is it not variance anymore? At what point it is you who’s playing bad? Maybe you were on a heater before? Maybe you are tilting because of your downswing?

Take a break! No, I don’t mean 5 minutes to go out to smoke and blow off some steam. I mean go home, close the computer. Don’t return to poker for 2 weeks. This really sucks if you are playing for a living, but hey, you’ve got a living bankroll of 6 months, so half a month is not going to kill you.

Work on your body! Maybe it’s taking yoga lessons, maybe it’s lifting weight, maybe it’s going on a hike. But I’ve found that if you are in a healthy body and with a healthy outlook on life, you’ll feel good and your winrate will increase. I’m not kidding about this, I’m not even taking it lightly. Too many of my sessions are so directly correlated to my bodily state of mind, it’s not even funny.

Enjoy the game for what it is! Smile at your opponents. Not only will it make you play better, you’ll also have a better time. Remember how it was, when you got started in poker. The excitement, the heat-thumping, the stacking of chips, the “high-fiving the monitor”.

But remember, if you come to me crying about a bad beat, I won’t be sympathetic. Now this is where I’m having a connundrum. I WILL have a mega-downswing at some point probably. I will try to not whine. Will I succeed? Will I be able to play with a clear mind, no chasing? Will I be able to follow my own advice? I’m having real fears that I’m stuck up, because I’ve been lucky at poker for the last few months and it will all come crashing down and the poker gods will laugh at me: “Ha, another loser, who thought she was good!”

And so here I am, grinding. Laughing inside at the people that say: “These donkeys keep calling me down with bottom pair”, but also at the ones that say: “Poker is so easy, if you aren’t taking 2BB/100 (LHE) or 10bb/100 (NLHE) of the idiots, you are really doing something wrong!” I wonder how many people are like me, just grinding, never telling anyone either of the two statements above, even though they really want to. How many people do look at the PT “Summary” tab and look at all the people with over 500 hands that are winning players…? Are the downswings really just variance?

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