There is a Time to Value bet J3o (isn’t there)?
That title may sound ridiculous, but consider this hand I just played.
It’s my first hand at the table. I’m dealt J3o in the big blind. The pot is unraised and the flop reads:
A J 8
with two diamonds
We all check the flop.
The turn is a 7 of hearts. The small blind checks to me and I decide to bet based on the following factors:
- An unraised pot greatly reduces the chance of anyone holding an ace.
- A checked around flop suggests no one else has a jack.
- Except for someone holding T9 or 87, the 7 on the board doesn’t really affect the strength of anyone’s hand.
So I bet and get two callers. Hmmm. With two diamonds on the board, there’s a good chance at least one of them is drawing to a flush. But with one card to come I’m still a definite favorite. Two pair would probably be worth a raise here, so I think I’m ahead.
The river was the ace of spades. The SB checks it to me again and I’m faced with a decision: bet again? If I bet, is there any chance of getting called by a second best hand? Is there any chance of getting raised? It seems incredibly unlikely that anyone has an ace, given the very passive action. I now have aces and jacks, counterfeiting any two-pair hands out there (87/J7/J8); so the only question is does anyone have a better kicker?
I checked it down and won the pot with my pair of jacks. The SB had K7o; the other player had 97 of diamonds for a pair plus draw.
Can you bet this and get a call? I’m not completely sure. Since they both had bottom pair, it seems possible that someone would think I was stealing and keep me honest.
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Comments
I think you need to know the players to know what to do here. There are some players where you have no value in betting, some that will always call with a seven, and some who will bluff if checked to. I don’t think you can do the same general thing here everytime and be profitable. Vs. two unknown players here I probably check like 70% of the time.
Pretty thin spot to value bet, you can make more catching bluffs by checking behind and calling.