Keeping Variance down in PLO
During the pot limit Omaha discussion on this week’s Two Plus Two pokercast Mike said something like, “Most people think of Omaha as that game where pros win or lose millions.” Omaha can have huge swings, but just like any poker game there are ways to keep your variance down.
Below are some tips that will help avoid large swings in low stakes online Omaha games. Using these ideas might not be the most profitable way to play, but at different times we have different goals. Just like playing the stock market, sometimes we need a high risk/growth strategy, but other times we need a safer approach. If you’re just learning the game, or if your bankroll has taken a hit and you want to grind it back up, well then some of these ideas might be right for you.
1. Choose games without maniacs. Watch table play for a couple of rounds to see if one player is driving the action. A table with players raising a lot pre-flop can very profitable, but it can also mean that at one time or another you’ll have to get your money in before seeing a flop. Since worse hands win more often in Omaha than in a game like hold’em, you’re less likely to win by just getting your money in good.
If I’m trying to watch my variance, I want to avoid making costly pre-flop calls. I widen my starting hand requirements just a little, and try to see flops for cheap. I don’t open the starting requirements too much though because I don’t want to put myself in a position to have to make tough post flop decisions. If there is a raise and a re-raise pre-flop, I will fold every hand I’m not willing to play for my whole stack because in an aggressive game, there is a good chance the initial raiser will repop it.
2. Don’t push your aces and kings pre-flop—If I’m trying to keep my variance down, I will limp with almost everything pre-flop, especially aces and kings. I like to tell myself that the action I get when I flop a set of aces or kings makes up for the loss I take by playing weak pre-flop. You’ll catch people off guard, and they’ll often pay you off. Plus, I personally have a hard time slowing down after I’ve raised pre-flop, and limping in also makes it easier for me to get rid of big hands that don’t come in. That being said, I will still raise pre-flop with most hands I want to play (excluding aces and kings) if I’m opening from late position.
3. Omaha is a game where the best hand becomes the second best (and most costly) fast. I think one of the reason people have a higher variance in the game is that they just can’t give up big hands. In Omaha, we have to be willing to swallow some pride—don’t push sets when the board is connected or has two cards to a flush. Taking a card off won’t kill you. Since play is looser online, a big bet on the flop isn’t usually going to shake people with big draws anyway. So, take a card, hope for the best, and be willing to dump your hand if a scary card comes. If the turn is a blank, put in a big bet. People are less likely to call draws with small pots and only one card to come.
4. Avoid the games labeled “fast”—players tend to raise much more with less at these tables. I accidentally sat down at one of these tables today, and I was shocked at the action. People were pushing in their whole stacks with two pair, and we didn’t see one flop that wasn’t raised pre-flop. Then I realized it was a fast table, and it all made sense. If you’ve got a huge bankroll, these tables can look as good as the buffet at the Bellagio, but if you’re trying to keep your variance down, it could be a nightmare.
5. Play full ring games, as opposed to six-max tables.
6. Consider a short-stack strategy—It’s just common sense that if you’ve got less money at risk on the table, you’ve got less to lose. I recommend reading Rolf Slotboom’s Omaha book if you’re interested in reading up on short stack play.
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Thanks for these, amarillosb. I will also sometimes forgo the preflop raise w/AA, particularly from EP or if they’ve got nothin’ to go with them. Or if I haven’t been doing much preflop raising previously. (I hate to make that raise and have it be a clear declaration to the table I have aces.)
The point about 6-max vs. full ring is a good one, too. For a long time I didn’t really appreciate the diff. there, but in terms of keeping down variance yr definitely better of in the full ring.